MJO研究新进展   总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6  

李崇银  潘静  宋洁 《大气科学》2013,37(2):229-252

MJO与ENSO的关系、MJO的数值模拟(预报)以及MJO对天气气候的影响是近些年来国内外大气科学研究的重要前沿问题.本文将综合介绍国内有关MJO对天气气候的影响以及MJO的数值模拟(预报)方面的近期研究进展,因为过去已介绍过MJO与ENSO相互作用的研究结果.利用澳大利亚气象局的RMM-MJO指数研究MJO与西北太平洋台风活动的关系,结果表明大气MJO对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2∶1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2、3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5、6位相)时的比例也为2∶1.对大气环流的合成分析显示,在MJO的不同位相西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有极其明显不同.在第2、3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5、6位相则明显有促进对流发生发展,并为台风生成和发展创造了有利的大尺度环流动力场.对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30～60 d低频动能距平的合成分析表明,在多台风年最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,表明那里有强MJO的活动;而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上与季风槽位置对应区域是低频动能的负距平区,那里MJO偏弱.即赤道西北太平洋上MJO活动的强(弱)年对应西北太平洋的台风偏多(偏少).对应MJO的不同活动位相,无论冬季、春季或夏季,中国东部的降水都将出现特殊的异常形势.在春季,MJO的第2、3位相有利我国东部长江中下游地区多雨、华南地区少雨;MJO的第4、5位相有利我国华南地区多雨而长江中下游地区少雨;在MJO的其它位相,我国东部地区都为降水负异常.在冬季,对应MJO的第1～3位相(特别是第2、3位相)中国华南降水偏多;而对应MJO的第6～8位相(特别是第6、7位相)中国华南降水偏少.在夏季,MJO位于印度洋时,MJO可以通过低层西风急流的波导效应影响到中国东南部地区,造成该地区降水偏多;当MJO位于西太平洋地区时,可以造成经向环流的上升支向北偏移,导致西北太平洋副高的东撤、以及中国东南部地区水汽输送减弱,降水减少.资料分析还表明,在年际变化尺度上,热带中、东印度洋MJO指数的持续异常对云南夏季降水有明显的影响.大气环流和数值模拟都表明,MJO活动不同位相的强对流会在东亚/西北太平洋地区激发产生不同形势的遥响应(Rossby波列),导致在中国不同地区出现有利(或不利)降水的环流形势和条件,是MJO活动影响中国降水的主要机制.用数值模式对MJO进行数值模拟(预报)是尚未很好解决的困难问题,原因也没有完全搞清楚.我们的一系列数值模拟清楚表明,MJO的模拟(预报)效果对模式所用对流参数化方案有很强的依赖关系;模式能否很好描写(再现)热带大气非绝热加热廓线,是极其关键的问题,只有当加热廓线在对流层中低层有最大加热时,模式才能得到同实际观测大体一致的MJO及其活动特征.这些数值模拟结果与我们过去从理论研究得到的结论相吻合,彼此得到应证.  相似文献   

2018年吉林省一次暴雨过程成因分析     

王秀娟  姜忠宝  马晓华  冯旭 《气象与环境学报》2020,36(2):1-8

利用常规气象观测数据、吉林省加密自动站观测数据、NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料和卫星云顶亮温数据,对2018年8月13—15日吉林省一次暴雨过程成因进行分析。结果表明:“三带”(西风带、副热带和热带环流)是暴雨产生的大尺度环流背景。大气整层水汽通量显示副热带高压外围的西南气流与远距离台风外围东南气流共同为暴雨输送充沛的水汽。降水有两个主要阶段,大气层结特征均为高层有正值位涡扰动并沿假相当位温锋区下滑,大气层结不稳定,水汽充沛,不稳定能量较大。降水第二阶段水汽输送、动热力条件、不稳定能量均小于第一阶段。云图表现特征为中尺度对流辐合体和中尺度对流云团,中尺度对流辐合体云团发展旺盛时,低层呈现气旋式涡度、中尺度辐合,高层呈反气旋式涡度、中尺度辐散。925 hPa低空切变线和地面辐合线是暴雨发生的中尺度触发条件。  相似文献   

梅雨期青藏高原东移对流系统影响江淮流域降水的研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

傅慎明  孙建华  赵思雄  李万莉  李博 《气象学报》2011,69(4):581-600

利用GOES-9和FY-2C卫星TBB资料、1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料以及常规地面观测资料对2003和2007年梅雨期内青藏高原东移对流系统影响重庆、四川以及江淮梅雨锋地区降水的主要方式作了研究。结果表明,2003和2007年梅雨期内,青藏高原东移对流系统影响下游地区降水主要存在4种方式:(1)高原上的动力辐合中心伴随高原对流系统东移,影响所经地区的降水,该种影响方式较为常见,持续时间较长,影响范围较广。(2)高原对流系统移出高原后在四川盆地引发稳定少动的西南低涡,触发一系列暴雨过程,此种影响方式持续时间较长,主要影响地区为四川和重庆(往往会造成强度很大的暴雨),当西南低涡以东盛行较强西南风时,向梅雨锋的动能输送较强,这十分有利于梅雨锋地区对流活动和降水的加强。(3)高原东移对流系统在四川盆地触发西南低涡,西南低涡生成后,在引导槽的作用下沿梅雨锋东移,沿途引发一系列暴雨,此种影响方式持续时间最长,波及范围最广。(4)对流系统东移出青藏高原后直接影响下游地区,此种影响方式最为常见,但其影响时间最短,强度最小。对环境场的分析表明,高原强对流往往发生在500hPa影响槽槽区附近的上升运动区,当200hPa高空急...  相似文献   

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent simulated by a spectral cumulus parameterization     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2020

The validity of a spectral cumulus parameterization (spectral scheme) for simulating a diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Maritime Continent (MC) was examined using a regional atmospheric model. The impacts of entrainment parameterization and each type of convective closure, i.e., non-equilibrium (or equilibrium) closure for deep convection, mid-level, and shallow convective closures, were also examined. When vertically variable entrainment and appropriate convective closures were employed, the model adequately simulated a diurnal cycle of precipitation over both land and ocean as compared to the observation. Analysis regarding the entrainment parameterization revealed that variable entrainment parameterization was needed not only for simulating better mean patterns of precipitation, but also for more realistic phases of diurnal cycles. The impacts of convective closures appeared in the differences in the precipitation amplitude. Analysis on diurnal cycles of convective properties and tendencies revealed that the cycles between boundary layer forcing and convective heating determined convection strength and were affected by each type of convective closure. It can be concluded that the spectral scheme with appropriate convective closures is able to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle over the MC.  相似文献   

Structure of a prefrontal convective rainband in northern Taiwan determined from Dual-Doppler data     

Yeong-Jer Lin  Robert W. Pasken  Hsui-Wu Chang 《Natural Hazards》1994,9(1-2):37-61

In this study, structural features of a subtropical prefrontal rainband associated with the Mei-Yu front on 25 June 1987 over northwestern Taiwan are investigated. Dual-Doppler data collected during the Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment (TAMEX) were employed to derive fields of reflectivity, system-relative wind and vertical velocity in a horizontal domain of 36 by 40 km using a 1 km grid spacing. There were ten analysis levels in the vertical ranging from 0.4 to 8.8 km. Vertical velocities were calculated from the anelastic continuity equation by integrating downward with variational adjustment.Results show that the low-level jet (LLJ) in the boundary layer provides large vertical shear ahead of the front. The southwest monsoon flow at low-levels carries high- _e environmental air northeastward meeting with the northwesterly flow from northern China to form distinct wind-shift line. This windshift line corresponds well to the position of the Mei-Yu front. Along the wind-shift line, the low-level convergence enhances lifting resulting in a narrow band of convection on the warm side of the front. There are many cells embedded within the rainband. Each cell is accompanied by the moderate convective updraft and weak downdraft. The precipitation is deep but not intense ahead of the front, while the precipitation behind the front is weak and shallow. Because the system traveled very slowly, up to 200 mm of rainfall in 24 hours occurred on the west coast of central Taiwan causing a flash flood over that region.  相似文献   

Some aspects of the correlation between lightning and rain activities in thunderstorms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Serge Soula  Serge Chauzy 《Atmospheric Research》2001,56(1-4)

The lightning activity of convective systems is a sometimes fruitful indicator of their precipitation production. The present study compares rain volume with different types of lightning activity in several convective systems. The study uses data obtained in the Paris area where two lightning detection systems coexist. The Météorage network provides the location and the polarity of cloud-to-ground flashes, while the SAFIR system detects the total flash activity: cloud-to-ground, intra-cloud flashes and VHF individual sources within a given time window. The overall spatial correlation between rain and lightning appears to be very consistent for all lightning types. A pixel-to-pixel study shows that positive CG flashes are associated with higher rainwater volume than negative flashes. Introducing a weight coefficient for positive CG flashes considerably improves the correlation between rain amount and lightning production. Taking into account the specific contribution of each type of lightning flash, the amount of rain can be estimated from the total electrical activity of each system. Comparison with the amount derived from radar measurement shows reasonable agreement. Finally, the parallel time evolutions of rain and lightning rates display quite similar characteristics.  相似文献   

大气中的耗散结构与对流运动   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

钱维宏 《大气科学》1992,16(1):84-91

本文论证熵平衡方程可用来判断大气中对流和降水的发生,非线性热力学理论中的超熵产生可用来判断天气系统的产生.  相似文献   

CSJ延时触发数字记录地震仪          下载免费PDF全文

邵安民  金东敏 《地球物理学报》1992,35(1):62-68

CSJ延时触发数字记录地震仪是一种便携式三路数字记录地震仪.它具有触发和定时控制两种工作方式,适合于记录区域性地震和人工地震.与之配套使用的回放仪,有串行和并行两种接口,便于联机处理.经野外实地观测,效果良好.  相似文献   

一次飑线过程对流稳定度演变的诊断分析   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

周围  包云轩  冉令坤  王勇 《大气科学》2018,42(2):339-356

针对2016年5月2日发生在华东地区的一次飑线过程,利用WRF模式进行高分辨率数值模拟。在成功模拟飑线发生、加强和移动的基础上,对此次过程中对流不稳定特征以及引起对流稳定度变化的原因进行诊断分析。结果表明:（1）在降水发生前,低层大气表现为对流不稳定;降水发生后,对流不稳定能量得到释放,大气趋于稳定。为了分析引起对流稳定度变化的原因,推导了局地直角坐标系中相当位温垂直梯度的倾向方程,其中位势散度是引起位势稳定度局地变化的主要强迫项。在弱降水区,低层位势散度为负值,有利于增强位势不稳定;强降水区及其前沿为位势散度正值区,倾向于抑制位势不稳定。在强降水区低层,位势散度的主要分量为垂直风切变项,代表垂直风切变和大气湿斜压性的综合作用;高层的主要分量为散度项,代表水平散度和位势稳定度的耦合作用。（2）位势散度能综合表征降水区上空垂直风切变、大气湿斜压性、水平辐合辐散和大气位势稳定度变化等特征,因而与降水联系紧密。本文利用位势散度对飑线降水进行预报,结果表明,位势散度与小时观测降水在时间和空间上吻合较好,对降水区有一定的指示意义,可以为飑线降水业务预报提供参考。  相似文献   

Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective–dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models     

M. Jalali  D. L. Rowell 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(4):863-874

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K⁺ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective–dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K⁺) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl₂ concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l⁻¹ CaCl₂ were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K⁺ concentration as the CaCl₂ concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l⁻¹ CaCl₂ solution were used for all other CaCl₂ concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl₂ concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l⁻¹ CaCl₂), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l⁻¹ CaCl₂ are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.  相似文献